Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SDSU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
SDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.8 (100th, offence 110th, defence 86th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 97%)
CSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 70th, defence 116th)
Returning production
40% (pass 23%, rush -28%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SDSU
CSU
pass rate, all downs
45%96th
58%11th
pass rate, standard downs
36%112th
51%10th
pass rate, 1st down
44%62nd
49%25th
no-huddle share
94%16th
80%46th
pass rate, passing downs
62%80th
73%25th
pass rate, red zone
42%51st
42%52nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1121st
26.2119th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SDSU offence
SDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.085
268
133 of 138
success rate
0.347
268
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
268
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.034
268
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.350
268
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.866
268
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.109
268
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.353
268
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
268
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.393
268
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
268
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
268
94 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.203
268
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
268
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
268
97 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
268
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
268
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.071
268
113 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
268
32 of 138
CSU offence
CSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.270
283
33 of 138
success rate
0.438
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.512
283
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.287
283
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
283
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.344
283
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.309
283
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
283
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
283
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.472
283
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.357
283
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.616
283
125 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
283
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
283
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
283
19 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
283
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
283
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
283
115 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.600
283
101 of 138
SDSU defence
SDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
294
84 of 138
success rate
0.442
294
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.049
294
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
294
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
294
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.677
294
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.247
294
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
294
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
294
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
294
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
294
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.393
294
128 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.111
294
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
294
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.400
294
71 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
294
1 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.058
294
4 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
20 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.900
294
8 of 138
CSU defence
CSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
253
112 of 138
success rate
0.462
253
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
253
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.229
253
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.487
253
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
253
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
253
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
253
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
253
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
253
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
253
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.395
253
129 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
253
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
253
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
253
114 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
253
95 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
253
85 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
253
102 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
253
57 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs