Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORST wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
SDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.8 (100th, offence 110th, defence 86th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 97%)
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SDSU
ORST
pass rate, all downs
45%96th
65%2nd
pass rate, standard downs
36%112th
55%3rd
pass rate, 1st down
44%62nd
57%3rd
no-huddle share
94%16th
46%86th
pass rate, passing downs
62%80th
87%1st
pass rate, red zone
42%51st
50%19th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1121st
27.396th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SDSU offence
SDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.085
268
133 of 138
success rate
0.347
268
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
268
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.034
268
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.350
268
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.866
268
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.109
268
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.353
268
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
268
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.393
268
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
268
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
268
94 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.203
268
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
268
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
268
97 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
268
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
268
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.071
268
113 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
268
32 of 138
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
SDSU defence
SDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
294
84 of 138
success rate
0.442
294
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.049
294
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
294
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
294
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.677
294
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.247
294
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
294
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
294
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
294
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
294
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.393
294
128 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.111
294
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
294
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.400
294
71 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
294
1 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.058
294
4 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
20 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.900
294
8 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs