Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORST wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
CSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 70th, defence 116th)
Returning production
40% (pass 23%, rush -28%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORST
CSU
pass rate, all downs
65%2nd
58%11th
pass rate, standard downs
55%3rd
51%10th
pass rate, 1st down
57%3rd
49%25th
no-huddle share
46%86th
80%46th
pass rate, passing downs
87%1st
73%25th
pass rate, red zone
50%19th
42%52nd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.396th
26.2119th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
CSU offence
CSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.270
283
33 of 138
success rate
0.438
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.512
283
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.287
283
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
283
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.344
283
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.309
283
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
283
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
283
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.472
283
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.357
283
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.616
283
125 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
283
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
283
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
283
19 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
283
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
283
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
283
115 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.600
283
101 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
CSU defence
CSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
253
112 of 138
success rate
0.462
253
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
253
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.229
253
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.487
253
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
253
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
253
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
253
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
253
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
253
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
253
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.395
253
129 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
253
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
253
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
253
114 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
253
95 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
253
85 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
253
102 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
253
57 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs