Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BOIS wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
BOIS
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
7.6 (47th, offence 29th, defence 56th)
Returning production
66% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 40%)
WMU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-7.2 (96th, offence 113th, defence 72nd)
Returning production
100% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 100%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BOIS
WMU
pass rate, all downs
41%120th
43%109th
pass rate, standard downs
31%125th
39%89th
pass rate, 1st down
31%124th
46%49th
no-huddle share
3%136th
19%113th
pass rate, passing downs
66%56th
50%128th
pass rate, red zone
40%62nd
18%131st
seconds per play (own drives)
33.25th
33.63rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BOIS offence
BOIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
290
23 of 138
success rate
0.500
290
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.153
290
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
290
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
290
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.941
290
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.335
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
290
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.490
290
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.538
290
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
290
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
290
20 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
290
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
290
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.286
290
50 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.090
290
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.059
290
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
290
15 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
290
7 of 138
WMU offence
WMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
245
97 of 138
success rate
0.400
245
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.167
245
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.413
245
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.979
245
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.006
245
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.380
245
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.426
245
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.450
245
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
245
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.870
245
101 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
245
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
245
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.364
245
42 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
245
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
245
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
245
23 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
245
92 of 138
BOIS defence
BOIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
219
60 of 138
success rate
0.356
219
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.663
219
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
219
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
219
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.083
219
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
219
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
219
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.024
219
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
219
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
219
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.469
219
27 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.284
219
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
219
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
219
26 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
219
112 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
219
95 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
219
109 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.500
219
28 of 138
WMU defence
WMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
269
86 of 138
success rate
0.465
269
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.025
269
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.022
269
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
269
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
269
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.173
269
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
269
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
269
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
269
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
269
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.051
269
103 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
269
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
269
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.650
269
89 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
269
4 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.056
269
3 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
45 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
269
132 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs