Line has moved +1.5 since we first saw it (BOIS -7 to BOIS -8.5).
Betting
Spread
BOIS favouredMarket BOIS −8.5Ours BOIS −12.7
WMU favouredgap 4.2 toward BOIS
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BOIS away | -8.5 | 29.5 | -298 | 71.8% | 73% |
| WMU home | +8.5 | 21.0 | +240 | 28.2% | 27% |
| Total | 50.5 | |
BOIS -7 when first seen, now BOIS -8.5 · total 48.5 then, 50.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BOIS away | -12.5 | 31.6 | 78.9% | -4.0 |
| WMU home | +12.5 | 18.9 | 21.1% | +4.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BOIS away | -8.0 | 28.4 | 70.2% | +0.5 |
| WMU home | +8.0 | 20.7 | 29.8% | -0.5 |
| Total | 49.1 | | | -1.4 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BOIS | WMU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.928th | -1.071st |
| Defence (cards) | +1.237th | -1.193rd |
| Card team rating | +6.130th | -2.177th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.647th | -7.296th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.527th | -0.384th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.734th | -0.590th |
| Card line | WMU +12.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 66% | 100% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Maddux Madsen BOIS87 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.433
Completion63.1%
TD–INT9-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game206
Rush yards, median game15
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
Broc Lowry WMU79 ▼1 overall · Junior
Points added per play-0.015
Completion65.2%
TD–INT4-1
Pass attempts, median game21
Pass yards, median game113
Rush yards, median game37
Games this season4
Team throws per game23.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BOIS away | 3-1 | 75% | +7.0 | 3-1 | 0.0 |
| WMU home | 2-2 | 50% | +3.5 | 2-2 | -5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Waldo Stadium · turf · 800 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 68°F, wind 3 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | BOIS 6 days · WMU 6 days |
| Travel | BOIS 1541 miles, body clock 1:30pm at kickoff, -1901 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BOIS | C. Bates WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday. |
| BOIS | S. Gaines RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Gaines is dealing with a upper body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| WMU | M. Dersa TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Dersa is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Buffalo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| WMU | A. Chenault WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Chenault is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Buffalo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| WMU | P. Domschke K | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Domschke is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |