Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTSA wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
CSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 70th, defence 116th)
Returning production
40% (pass 23%, rush -28%, receiving 58%)
UTSA
Games
4
Plays per game
63.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-1.0 (73rd, offence 44th, defence 99th)
Returning production
67% (pass 93%, rush 36%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CSU
UTSA
pass rate, all downs
58%11th
51%48th
pass rate, standard downs
51%10th
44%51st
pass rate, 1st down
49%25th
48%33rd
no-huddle share
80%46th
84%37th
pass rate, passing downs
73%25th
67%53rd
pass rate, red zone
42%52nd
35%87th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2119th
27.397th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CSU offence
CSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.270
283
33 of 138
success rate
0.438
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.512
283
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.287
283
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
283
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.344
283
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.309
283
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
283
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
283
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.472
283
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.357
283
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.616
283
125 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
283
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
283
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
283
19 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
283
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
283
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
283
115 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.600
283
101 of 138
UTSA offence
UTSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.268
253
35 of 138
success rate
0.474
253
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.111
253
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
253
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.541
253
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.834
253
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.294
253
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
253
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
253
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.565
253
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
253
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
253
75 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
253
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
253
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.542
253
91 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
253
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
253
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
253
105 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
253
104 of 138
CSU defence
CSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
253
112 of 138
success rate
0.462
253
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
253
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.229
253
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.487
253
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
253
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
253
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
253
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
253
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
253
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
253
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.395
253
129 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
253
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
253
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
253
114 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
253
95 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
253
85 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
253
102 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
253
57 of 138
UTSA defence
UTSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.077
324
77 of 138
success rate
0.432
324
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.135
324
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
324
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
324
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.917
324
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.084
324
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
324
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.380
324
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
324
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.340
324
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.280
324
123 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
324
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
324
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.714
324
93 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
324
21 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
324
12 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
324
67 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
324
74 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs