Betting
Spread
TROY favouredMarket USU −3Ours USU −0.9
USU favouredgap 2.1 toward TROY
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TROY away | +3.0 | 22.3 | +124 | 42.8% | 43% |
| USU home | -3.0 | 25.3 | -148 | 57.2% | 58% |
| Total | 47.5 | |
USU -3 when first seen, now USU -3 · total 48.5 then, 47.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TROY away | +1.0 | 23.3 | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| USU home | -1.0 | 24.2 | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TROY away | +5.5 | 20.1 | 34.8% | +2.5 |
| USU home | -5.5 | 25.9 | 65.2% | -2.5 |
| Total | 46.0 | | | -1.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TROY | USU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.7100th | -5.3120th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.886th | -0.163rd |
| Card team rating | -4.596th | -5.4104th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -8.8104th | -9.3105th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.491st | -0.174th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.6101st | -0.591st |
| Card line | USU -0.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 35% | 65% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Goose Crowder TROY76 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game33.5
Grady Brosterhous USUnot rated by EA · GR
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game32.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TROY away | 1-3 | 25% | -2.6 | 0-4 | -7.8 |
| USU home | 2-2 | 50% | +0.1 | 0-4 | -19.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Maverik Stadium · turf · 4685 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 76°F, wind 8 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | TROY 7 days · USU 7 days |
| Travel | TROY 1580 miles, body clock 6:30pm at kickoff, +4177 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Harrison Taggart USU — questionable (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
Linebacker exited in ambulance after tackle in 2nd quarter of Utah game; reported in concussion protocol with neck injury.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TROY | J. Lott S | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Lott is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Southern Miss on Tuesday, October 6th. |
| TROY | F. Rogosch TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Southern Miss on Tuesday, October 6th. |
| USU | D. Starling WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Starling is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
| USU | J. Robinson WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Robinson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | J. Jacobs RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Jacobs is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Boise State |
| USU | M. Hillstead QB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
| USU | N. White RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | G. Brosterhous QB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Brosterhous is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | S. Vailahi RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | C. Remenowsky TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Remenowsky is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | K. Kaio TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | A. Garcia WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | N. Boncore WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | J. Nelson TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| USU | E. Wood WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.