Betting
Spread
SDSU favouredMarket TOL −2.5Ours SDSU −2.4
TOL favouredgap 4.9 toward SDSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| SDSU away | +2.5 | 24.0 | +120 | 43.7% | 44% |
| TOL home | -2.5 | 26.5 | -142 | 56.3% | 57% |
| Total | 50.5 | |
TOL -2.5 when first seen, now TOL -2.5 · total 49.5 then, 50.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SDSU away | -2.5 | 26.4 | 56.6% | -5.0 |
| TOL home | +2.5 | 24.1 | 43.4% | +5.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SDSU away | +4.0 | 20.8 | 38.8% | +1.5 |
| TOL home | -4.0 | 24.9 | 61.2% | -1.5 |
| Total | 45.8 | | | -4.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | SDSU | TOL |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.091st | -4.6109th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.677th | -1.6108th |
| Card team rating | -3.588th | -6.1111th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -7.8100th | +0.367th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.385th | +0.160th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.594th | +0.164th |
| Card line | TOL +2.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 99% | 66% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Denegal SDSU74 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play-0.064
Completion56.1%
TD–INT5-5
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game172
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.2
John Alan Richter TOL75 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.532
Completion66.9%
TD–INT12-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game268
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| SDSU away | 0-4 | 0% | -12.1 | 2-2 | -1.3 |
| TOL home | 2-1-1 | 67% | +8.9 | 4-0 | +19.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Glass Bowl · turf · 595 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 66°F, wind 6 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | SDSU 6 days · TOL 6 days |
| Travel | SDSU 1929 miles, body clock 9:00am at kickoff, +392 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| SDSU | D. Brown WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Boise State |
| SDSU | J. Bostick WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bostick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Texas State |
| SDSU | P. Guiltinan TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Ellis TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | R. Wolfer TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | L. Sutton RB | questionable Ankle | Tue, Sep 29 | Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Kinnard RB | questionable Knee | Tue, Sep 29 | Kinnard is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| TOL | T. Kelleher TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Kelleher is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TOL | K. Gilbert Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TOL | T. Jones WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |