Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USC
UCLA
pass rate, all downs
50%57th
41%117th
pass rate, standard downs
41%80th
34%118th
pass rate, 1st down
38%103rd
37%107th
no-huddle share
82%43rd
19%111th
pass rate, passing downs
78%10th
61%83rd
pass rate, red zone
41%55th
30%108th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.851st
30.534th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs