Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORE wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
ORE
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
21.6 (8th, offence 5th, defence 25th)
Returning production
75% (pass 95%, rush 68%, receiving 64%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WASH
ORE
pass rate, all downs
59%5th
54%25th
pass rate, standard downs
53%6th
45%42nd
pass rate, 1st down
53%10th
46%45th
no-huddle share
6%130th
38%91st
pass rate, passing downs
78%9th
76%15th
pass rate, red zone
43%46th
38%69th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.974th
26.8104th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
ORE offence
ORE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
289
14 of 138
success rate
0.478
289
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
289
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.225
289
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
289
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.001
289
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.414
289
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
289
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.777
289
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
289
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
289
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.360
289
32 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
289
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
289
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.029
289
15 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
289
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
289
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
289
26 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
289
108 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
ORE defence
ORE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.003
268
49 of 138
success rate
0.373
268
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
268
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.041
268
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
268
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
268
67 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.036
268
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
268
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
268
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.410
268
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.294
268
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.685
268
55 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
268
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
268
67 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
268
60 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.049
268
1 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.108
268
136 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
268
70 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs