Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PSU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
PSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 28th, defence 12th)
Returning production
8% (pass 3%, rush -2%, receiving 14%)
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
PSU
MD
pass rate, all downs
43%111th
58%10th
pass rate, standard downs
35%116th
54%5th
pass rate, 1st down
29%131st
55%7th
no-huddle share
85%36th
72%58th
pass rate, passing downs
65%57th
68%45th
pass rate, red zone
33%93rd
40%60th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.984th
26.4114th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
PSU offence
PSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.220
275
55 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.299
275
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
275
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
275
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.929
275
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.391
275
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
275
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.813
275
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
275
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
275
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
275
105 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.136
275
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
275
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.967
275
66 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
275
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
275
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
275
79 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.800
275
126 of 138
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
PSU defence
PSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.103
241
19 of 138
success rate
0.315
241
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
241
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
241
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.339
241
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.129
241
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.164
241
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.296
241
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.207
241
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.365
241
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
241
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.529
241
33 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.229
241
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
241
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.636
241
88 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
241
114 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
241
94 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
241
120 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
241
131 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs