Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NEB wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
NEB
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 20th, defence 22nd)
Returning production
46% (pass 5%, rush 30%, receiving 74%)
IOWA
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
14.8 (19th, offence 51st, defence 10th)
Returning production
34% (pass 16%, rush 20%, receiving 56%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NEB
IOWA
pass rate, all downs
43%104th
50%52nd
pass rate, standard downs
38%96th
45%44th
pass rate, 1st down
36%109th
43%65th
no-huddle share
78%48th
4%133rd
pass rate, passing downs
57%103rd
64%63rd
pass rate, red zone
35%84th
50%20th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.559th
29.265th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NEB offence
NEB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.414
281
6 of 138
success rate
0.498
281
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.439
281
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.344
281
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.494
281
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.259
281
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.499
281
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
281
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.658
281
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
281
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
281
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.408
281
28 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
281
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
281
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.192
281
9 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
281
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
281
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
281
32 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
281
87 of 138
IOWA offence
IOWA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.172
263
65 of 138
success rate
0.430
263
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.279
263
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.232
263
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
263
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.342
263
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.194
263
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
263
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.219
263
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
263
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.241
263
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.495
263
22 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
263
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.529
263
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
263
82 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
263
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
263
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
263
67 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
263
103 of 138
NEB defence
NEB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.366
235
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.241
235
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.002
235
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
235
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
235
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.107
235
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.349
235
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.342
235
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
235
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
235
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.898
235
75 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.182
235
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
235
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.611
235
24 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
235
121 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.136
235
119 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.068
235
90 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
235
96 of 138
IOWA defence
IOWA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.145
243
8 of 138
success rate
0.300
243
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
243
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.244
243
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.319
243
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.385
243
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.068
243
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
243
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.787
243
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.355
243
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.209
243
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.604
243
44 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
243
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
243
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.167
243
9 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
81 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
243
40 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.091
243
129 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.100
243
133 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs