Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MINN wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
MINN
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
6.5 (52nd, offence 62nd, defence 34th)
Returning production
65% (pass 97%, rush 1000%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NU
MINN
pass rate, all downs
45%92nd
55%22nd
pass rate, passing downs
47%132nd
73%27th
no-huddle share
11%120th
18%114th
pass rate, standard downs
44%45th
49%15th
pass rate, 1st down
49%23rd
54%8th
pass rate, red zone
48%24th
66%3rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.826th
31.219th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
MINN offence
MINN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.129
266
81 of 138
success rate
0.470
266
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
266
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
266
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
266
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
266
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.479
266
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.355
266
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
266
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
266
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.498
266
134 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.241
266
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
266
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
266
94 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
266
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
266
61 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.600
266
135 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
MINN defence
MINN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.041
230
72 of 138
success rate
0.370
230
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
230
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.074
230
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
230
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.870
230
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.180
230
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
230
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.543
230
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.420
230
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
230
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.680
230
54 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
230
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
230
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.471
230
127 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.237
230
133 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.172
230
135 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
230
83 of 138
opponent average starting field position
78.800
230
138 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs