Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCLA wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
ILL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
8.5 (41st, offence 24th, defence 69th)
Returning production
21% (pass 3%, rush 34%, receiving 31%)
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ILL
UCLA
pass rate, all downs
52%37th
41%117th
pass rate, standard downs
44%46th
34%118th
pass rate, 1st down
44%58th
37%107th
no-huddle share
19%112th
19%111th
pass rate, red zone
61%4th
30%108th
pass rate, passing downs
75%18th
61%83rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.531st
30.534th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ILL offence
ILL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
246
28 of 138
success rate
0.516
246
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
246
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.261
246
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
246
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
246
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.323
246
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
246
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
246
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.564
246
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.385
246
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.451
246
26 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.114
246
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
246
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
246
63 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
246
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
246
109 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
246
48 of 138
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
ILL defence
ILL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.193
274
120 of 138
success rate
0.445
274
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.269
274
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
274
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
274
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
274
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.279
274
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
274
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.478
274
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.490
274
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
274
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
274
60 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
274
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
274
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.864
274
105 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
274
28 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.069
274
15 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
274
70 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
274
59 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs