Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PSU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
MINN
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
6.5 (52nd, offence 62nd, defence 34th)
Returning production
65% (pass 97%, rush 1000%, receiving 45%)
PSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 28th, defence 12th)
Returning production
8% (pass 3%, rush -2%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MINN
PSU
pass rate, all downs
55%22nd
43%111th
pass rate, standard downs
49%15th
35%116th
pass rate, 1st down
54%8th
29%131st
no-huddle share
18%114th
85%36th
pass rate, passing downs
73%27th
65%57th
pass rate, red zone
66%3rd
33%93rd
seconds per play (own drives)
31.219th
27.984th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MINN offence
MINN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.129
266
81 of 138
success rate
0.470
266
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
266
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
266
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
266
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
266
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.479
266
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.355
266
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
266
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
266
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.498
266
134 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.241
266
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
266
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
266
94 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
266
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
266
61 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.600
266
135 of 138
PSU offence
PSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.220
275
55 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.299
275
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
275
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
275
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.929
275
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.391
275
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
275
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.813
275
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
275
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
275
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
275
105 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.136
275
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
275
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.967
275
66 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
275
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
275
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
275
79 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.800
275
126 of 138
MINN defence
MINN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.041
230
72 of 138
success rate
0.370
230
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
230
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.074
230
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
230
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.870
230
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.180
230
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
230
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.543
230
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.420
230
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
230
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.680
230
54 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
230
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
230
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.471
230
127 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.237
230
133 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.172
230
135 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
230
83 of 138
opponent average starting field position
78.800
230
138 of 138
PSU defence
PSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.103
241
19 of 138
success rate
0.315
241
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
241
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
241
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.339
241
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.129
241
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.164
241
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.296
241
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.207
241
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.365
241
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
241
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.529
241
33 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.229
241
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
241
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.636
241
88 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
241
114 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
241
94 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
241
120 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
241
131 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs