Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WASH wins about 81% of the time at a number like ours.
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
MSU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 80th, defence 58th)
Returning production
21% (pass 16%, rush 19%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WASH
MSU
pass rate, all downs
59%5th
46%84th
pass rate, standard downs
53%6th
39%95th
pass rate, 1st down
53%10th
42%81st
no-huddle share
6%130th
21%110th
pass rate, passing downs
78%9th
68%49th
pass rate, red zone
43%46th
38%70th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.974th
32.410th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
MSU offence
MSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
266
115 of 138
success rate
0.444
266
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.082
266
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
266
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
266
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
266
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
266
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
266
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.347
266
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
266
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
266
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.923
266
97 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.204
266
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
266
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.346
266
105 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
266
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.128
266
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
266
94 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
266
105 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
MSU defence
MSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
232
103 of 138
success rate
0.427
232
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.234
232
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.060
232
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
232
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.854
232
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.212
232
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
232
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.723
232
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
232
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
232
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
232
58 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.260
232
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
232
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
232
86 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
232
52 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
232
62 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
232
58 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
232
75 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs