Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MD wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
WIS
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
6.9 (51st, offence 84th, defence 19th)
Returning production
31% (pass -500%, rush 32%, receiving 34%)
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WIS
MD
pass rate, all downs
53%36th
58%10th
pass rate, standard downs
48%22nd
54%5th
pass rate, 1st down
49%32nd
55%7th
no-huddle share
7%128th
72%58th
pass rate, passing downs
62%75th
68%45th
pass rate, red zone
36%81st
40%60th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.023rd
26.4114th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WIS offence
WIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
246
75 of 138
success rate
0.423
246
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.391
246
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.183
246
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
246
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.241
246
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.176
246
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.488
246
36 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.507
246
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
246
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.948
246
92 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
246
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
246
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
246
106 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
246
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
246
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
246
127 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
246
98 of 138
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
WIS defence
WIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.051
259
30 of 138
success rate
0.340
259
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.042
259
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
259
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.338
259
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
259
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
259
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
259
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.187
259
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
259
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.163
259
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.928
259
85 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.105
259
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
259
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.474
259
75 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
259
73 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.077
259
34 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.085
259
123 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
259
116 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs