Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). IOWA wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
PUR
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-6.4 (94th, offence 57th, defence 120th)
Returning production
48% (pass 97%, rush 61%, receiving 22%)
IOWA
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
14.8 (19th, offence 51st, defence 10th)
Returning production
34% (pass 16%, rush 20%, receiving 56%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
PUR
IOWA
pass rate, all downs
56%20th
50%52nd
pass rate, standard downs
48%19th
45%44th
pass rate, 1st down
49%27th
43%65th
no-huddle share
44%88th
4%133rd
pass rate, passing downs
76%14th
64%63rd
pass rate, red zone
51%17th
50%20th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.463rd
29.265th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
PUR offence
PUR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
286
45 of 138
success rate
0.465
286
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
286
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.083
286
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
286
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.883
286
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.399
286
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.506
286
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.408
286
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
286
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
286
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.027
286
85 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
286
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
286
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.630
286
86 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
286
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
286
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
286
16 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
286
18 of 138
IOWA offence
IOWA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.172
263
65 of 138
success rate
0.430
263
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.279
263
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.232
263
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
263
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.342
263
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.194
263
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
263
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.219
263
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
263
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.241
263
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.495
263
22 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
263
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.529
263
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
263
82 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
263
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
263
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
263
67 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
263
103 of 138
PUR defence
PUR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.351
258
138 of 138
success rate
0.500
258
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.366
258
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.300
258
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
258
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.054
258
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.412
258
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.469
258
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.827
258
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
258
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
258
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.319
258
124 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.151
258
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
258
136 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
258
61 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
258
98 of 138
IOWA defence
IOWA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.145
243
8 of 138
success rate
0.300
243
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
243
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.244
243
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.319
243
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.385
243
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.068
243
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
243
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.787
243
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.355
243
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.209
243
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.604
243
44 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
243
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
243
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.167
243
9 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
81 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
243
40 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.091
243
129 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.100
243
133 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs