Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). IU wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
IU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
26.9 (4th, offence 5th, defence 7th)
Returning production
17% (pass 2%, rush 25%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USC
IU
pass rate, all downs
50%57th
38%128th
pass rate, standard downs
41%80th
31%126th
pass rate, 1st down
38%103rd
30%126th
no-huddle share
82%43rd
3%135th
pass rate, passing downs
78%10th
55%114th
pass rate, red zone
41%55th
17%133rd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.851st
33.06th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
IU offence
IU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.421
247
5 of 138
success rate
0.510
247
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
247
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
247
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
247
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
247
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.686
247
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
247
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
247
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
247
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.379
247
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.507
247
19 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
247
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
247
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.241
247
7 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
247
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
247
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.028
247
11 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
247
121 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
IU defence
IU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
237
17 of 138
success rate
0.300
237
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
237
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.134
237
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.264
237
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.164
237
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.035
237
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
237
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
237
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.329
237
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
237
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.262
237
12 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.236
237
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
237
38 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
237
115 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
132 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.030
237
3 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
237
118 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs