Betting
Spread
USC favouredMarket IU −10Ours IU −2.7
IU favouredgap 7.3 toward USC
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| USC away | +10.0 | 24.3 | +350 | 21.3% | — |
| IU home | -10.0 | 34.3 | -455 | 78.7% | — |
| Total | 58.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USC away | +2.5 | 27.9 | 44.0% | -7.5 |
| IU home | -2.5 | 30.6 | 56.0% | +7.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | USC | IU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +9.66th | +9.38th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.110th | +3.64th |
| Card team rating | +12.77th | +12.86th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +17.813th | +26.94th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.913th | +1.26th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.413th | +1.94th |
| Card line | IU -2.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 59% | 17% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Maiava USC93 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.532
Completion70.1%
TD–INT14-2
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game286
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season5
Team throws per game34.2
Josh Hoover IU88 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.756
Completion70.0%
TD–INT11-0
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game216
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game21.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| USC away | 1-4 | 20% | -8.0 | 4-1 | +7.9 |
| IU home | 0-4 | 0% | -6.8 | 2-2 | -5.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| USC | day | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| USC | division | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| USC | away division | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| USC | underdog | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| IU | all | won 16 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | home | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| IU | home | won 16 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | favourite | won 23 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | home favourite | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| IU | home favourite | won 16 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | day | won 15 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | favourite of 7+ | won 39 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | division | won 12 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | home division | won 10 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| USC | C. Simms WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Simms is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | M. Bowman TE | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | T. Mosley WR | questionable Knee | Wed, Sep 30 | Mosley is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | R. Tezeno WR | questionable Foot | Sun, Sep 27 | Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | S. Huard QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | R. Ison WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | D. Redeaux RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | K. Reddick S | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Reddick is dealing with an undisclsoed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | K. O'Connor OG | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| IU | L. Beebe Jr. RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Beebe Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will return |
| IU | T. Richard RB | probable Ankle | Wed, Sep 30 | Richard is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play on Saturday against the Rutgers. |
| IU | L. Bond WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bond is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against W. Kentucky on Saturday, September 19th. |