Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MD wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
PUR
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-6.4 (94th, offence 57th, defence 120th)
Returning production
48% (pass 97%, rush 61%, receiving 22%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MD
PUR
pass rate, all downs
58%10th
56%20th
pass rate, standard downs
54%5th
48%19th
pass rate, 1st down
55%7th
49%27th
no-huddle share
72%58th
44%88th
pass rate, passing downs
68%45th
76%14th
pass rate, red zone
40%60th
51%17th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4114th
29.463rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
PUR offence
PUR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
286
45 of 138
success rate
0.465
286
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
286
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.083
286
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
286
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.883
286
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.399
286
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.506
286
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.408
286
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
286
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
286
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.027
286
85 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
286
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
286
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.630
286
86 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
286
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
286
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
286
16 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
286
18 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
PUR defence
PUR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.351
258
138 of 138
success rate
0.500
258
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.366
258
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.300
258
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
258
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.054
258
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.412
258
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.469
258
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.827
258
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
258
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
258
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.319
258
124 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.151
258
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
258
136 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
258
61 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
258
98 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs