Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WIS wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
WIS
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
6.9 (51st, offence 84th, defence 19th)
Returning production
31% (pass -500%, rush 32%, receiving 34%)
IOWA
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
14.8 (19th, offence 51st, defence 10th)
Returning production
34% (pass 16%, rush 20%, receiving 56%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WIS
IOWA
pass rate, all downs
53%36th
50%52nd
pass rate, standard downs
48%22nd
45%44th
pass rate, 1st down
49%32nd
43%65th
no-huddle share
7%128th
4%133rd
pass rate, passing downs
62%75th
64%63rd
pass rate, red zone
36%81st
50%20th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.023rd
29.265th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WIS offence
WIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
246
75 of 138
success rate
0.423
246
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.391
246
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.183
246
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
246
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.241
246
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.176
246
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.488
246
36 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.507
246
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
246
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.948
246
92 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
246
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
246
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
246
106 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
246
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
246
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
246
127 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
246
98 of 138
IOWA offence
IOWA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.172
263
65 of 138
success rate
0.430
263
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.279
263
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.232
263
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
263
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.342
263
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.194
263
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
263
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.219
263
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
263
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.241
263
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.495
263
22 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
263
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.529
263
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
263
82 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
263
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
263
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
263
67 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
263
103 of 138
WIS defence
WIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.051
259
30 of 138
success rate
0.340
259
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.042
259
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
259
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.338
259
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
259
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
259
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
259
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.187
259
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
259
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.163
259
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.928
259
85 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.105
259
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
259
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.474
259
75 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
259
73 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.077
259
34 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.085
259
123 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
259
116 of 138
IOWA defence
IOWA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.145
243
8 of 138
success rate
0.300
243
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
243
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.244
243
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.319
243
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.385
243
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.068
243
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
243
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.787
243
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.355
243
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.209
243
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.604
243
44 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
243
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
243
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.167
243
9 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
81 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
243
40 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.091
243
129 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.100
243
133 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs