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Saturday 2026-10-24 · time TBA · Rose Bowl
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
UCLA pass rush4.4% 13783rd9.4% 26555thfaces MSU10.2% 118130th7.3% ~2.4 sacks
MSU pass rush6.8% 10341st9.8% 22446thfaces UCLA5.7% 10680th6.2% ~2.1 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

MSU with the ball

MSU offence vs UCLA defenceMSU offenceUCLA defencerank gap
points added per play0.033115th-0.12712th-103
success rate0.44465th0.32716th-49
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.082130th1.347110th-20
rush: points added per play-0.008117th-0.10526th-91
rush: success rate0.41595th0.32826th-69
rush: explosiveness0.848104th0.79928th-76
pass: points added per play0.15593rd-0.11911th-82
pass: success rate0.48341st0.33319th-22
pass: explosiveness1.347121st1.845128th+7
standard downs: success rate0.50555th0.38921st-34
passing downs: success rate0.27898th0.22018th-80
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.92397th2.36521st-76
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.204108th0.250124th+16
short-yardage conversion rate0.71490th0.833116th+26
points per trip inside the 403.346105th3.00051st-54
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.192128th0.185105th-23
havoc allowed by the front seven0.128130th0.10579th-51
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06494th0.080117th+23
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300105th——

UCLA with the ball

UCLA offence vs MSU defenceUCLA offenceMSU defencerank gap
points added per play0.28727th0.151103rd+76
success rate0.49430th0.42796th+66
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.25358th1.23472nd+14
rush: points added per play0.4072nd0.06081st+79
rush: success rate0.5735th0.455110th+105
rush: explosiveness1.06431st0.85442nd+11
pass: points added per play0.124103rd0.21290th-13
pass: success rate0.394101st0.37953rd-48
pass: explosiveness1.66840th1.723114th+74
standard downs: success rate0.55226th0.48497th+71
passing downs: success rate0.34250th0.30189th+39
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.9751st2.75958th+57
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.0963rd0.260128th+125
short-yardage conversion rate0.84220th0.63235th+15
points per trip inside the 404.34345th3.60086th+41
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13253rd0.15152nd-1
havoc allowed by the front seven0.05718th0.09562nd+44
havoc allowed by the secondary0.075118th0.05658th-60
average starting field position (yards from own goal)63.700134th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.