Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCLA wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
WIS
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
6.9 (51st, offence 84th, defence 19th)
Returning production
31% (pass -500%, rush 32%, receiving 34%)
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WIS
UCLA
pass rate, all downs
53%36th
41%117th
pass rate, standard downs
48%22nd
34%118th
pass rate, 1st down
49%32nd
37%107th
no-huddle share
7%128th
19%111th
pass rate, passing downs
62%75th
61%83rd
pass rate, red zone
36%81st
30%108th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.023rd
30.534th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WIS offence
WIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
246
75 of 138
success rate
0.423
246
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.391
246
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.183
246
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
246
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.241
246
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.176
246
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.488
246
36 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.507
246
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
246
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.948
246
92 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
246
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
246
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
246
106 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
246
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
246
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
246
127 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
246
98 of 138
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
WIS defence
WIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.051
259
30 of 138
success rate
0.340
259
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.042
259
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
259
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.338
259
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
259
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
259
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
259
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.187
259
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
259
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.163
259
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.928
259
85 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.105
259
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
259
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.474
259
75 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
259
73 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.077
259
34 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.085
259
123 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
259
116 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs