Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WASH wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
PUR
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-6.4 (94th, offence 57th, defence 120th)
Returning production
48% (pass 97%, rush 61%, receiving 22%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WASH
PUR
pass rate, all downs
59%5th
56%20th
pass rate, standard downs
53%6th
48%19th
pass rate, 1st down
53%10th
49%27th
no-huddle share
6%130th
44%88th
pass rate, passing downs
78%9th
76%14th
pass rate, red zone
43%46th
51%17th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.974th
29.463rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
PUR offence
PUR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
286
45 of 138
success rate
0.465
286
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
286
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.083
286
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
286
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.883
286
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.399
286
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.506
286
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.408
286
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
286
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
286
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.027
286
85 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
286
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
286
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.630
286
86 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
286
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
286
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
286
16 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
286
18 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
PUR defence
PUR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.351
258
138 of 138
success rate
0.500
258
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.366
258
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.300
258
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
258
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.054
258
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.412
258
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.469
258
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.827
258
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
258
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
258
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.319
258
124 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.151
258
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
258
136 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
258
61 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
258
98 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs