Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORE wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
NEB
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 20th, defence 22nd)
Returning production
46% (pass 5%, rush 30%, receiving 74%)
ORE
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
21.6 (8th, offence 5th, defence 25th)
Returning production
75% (pass 95%, rush 68%, receiving 64%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NEB
ORE
pass rate, all downs
43%104th
54%25th
pass rate, standard downs
38%96th
45%42nd
pass rate, 1st down
36%109th
46%45th
no-huddle share
78%48th
38%91st
pass rate, passing downs
57%103rd
76%15th
pass rate, red zone
35%84th
38%69th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.559th
26.8104th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NEB offence
NEB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.414
281
6 of 138
success rate
0.498
281
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.439
281
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.344
281
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.494
281
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.259
281
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.499
281
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
281
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.658
281
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
281
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
281
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.408
281
28 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
281
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
281
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.192
281
9 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
281
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
281
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
281
32 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
281
87 of 138
ORE offence
ORE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
289
14 of 138
success rate
0.478
289
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
289
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.225
289
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
289
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.001
289
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.414
289
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
289
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.777
289
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
289
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
289
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.360
289
32 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
289
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
289
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.029
289
15 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
289
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
289
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
289
26 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
289
108 of 138
NEB defence
NEB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.366
235
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.241
235
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.002
235
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
235
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
235
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.107
235
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.349
235
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.342
235
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
235
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
235
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.898
235
75 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.182
235
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
235
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.611
235
24 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
235
121 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.136
235
119 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.068
235
90 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
235
96 of 138
ORE defence
ORE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.003
268
49 of 138
success rate
0.373
268
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
268
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.041
268
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
268
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
268
67 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.036
268
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
268
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
268
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.410
268
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.294
268
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.685
268
55 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
268
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
268
67 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
268
60 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.049
268
1 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.108
268
136 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
268
70 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs