Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OSU wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
OSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
28.8 (2nd, offence 1st, defence 2nd)
Returning production
68% (pass 94%, rush 55%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MD
OSU
pass rate, all downs
58%10th
51%44th
pass rate, standard downs
54%5th
43%59th
pass rate, 1st down
55%7th
44%64th
no-huddle share
72%58th
10%121st
pass rate, passing downs
68%45th
79%7th
pass rate, red zone
40%60th
39%64th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4114th
30.242nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
OSU offence
OSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.394
271
8 of 138
success rate
0.524
271
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.342
271
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.175
271
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
271
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.024
271
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.663
271
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.607
271
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.579
271
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.572
271
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
271
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.201
271
58 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
271
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
271
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
271
13 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
271
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.063
271
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
271
59 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
271
107 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
OSU defence
OSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.081
269
23 of 138
success rate
0.353
269
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.211
269
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.042
269
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
269
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.945
269
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
269
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.275
269
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.588
269
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
269
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
269
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.791
269
62 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
269
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
269
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.778
269
33 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.208
269
125 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
269
78 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.104
269
135 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.700
269
128 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs