Betting
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BALL away | +19.5 | — | 10.3% | — |
| NU home | -19.5 | — | 89.7% | — |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BALL | NU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.7133rd | +0.854th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.9112th | -0.368th |
| Card team rating | -8.6130th | +0.658th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -25.0135th | +7.350th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.1135th | +0.340th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.8136th | +0.645th |
| Card line | NU -19.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 6% | 89% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Tyler Mizzell BALL69 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.168
Completion58.1%
TD–INT1-0
Pass attempts, median game2
Pass yards, median game16
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.2
Aidan Chiles NU81 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.518
Completion70.7%
TD–INT6-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game273
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season3
Team throws per game25.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BALL away | 1-3 | 25% | -6.0 | 3-1 | +3.3 |
| NU home | 3-0 | 100% | +15.7 | 3-0 | +1.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Ryan Field).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BALL | K. Luster QB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Luster is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | T. Horton RB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Horton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | C. Coonrod TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | D. Talbert WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| BALL | C. Breveard RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | C. Thompson Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Thompson is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NU | J. Fussell CB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| NU | J. McDuffie WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Penn State on Friday. |
| NU | H. Eligon II WR | probable Lower Body | Wed, Sep 30 | Eligon II is managing with a lower body injury , but it is expected to play against the Penn State on Friday. |
| NU | T. McGlinchey TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 29 | McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return. |
| NU | L. Dehnicke TE | questionable Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 29 | Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Friday against the Penn State. |
| NU | B. Turner CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Indiana on Friday. |
| NU | C. Farrell WR | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Hoosiers on Friday. |
| NU | C. Petrucci TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 22 | Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Hoosiers on Friday. |