Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). IU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
IU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
26.9 (4th, offence 5th, defence 7th)
Returning production
17% (pass 2%, rush 25%, receiving 24%)
NEB
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 20th, defence 22nd)
Returning production
46% (pass 5%, rush 30%, receiving 74%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
IU
NEB
pass rate, all downs
38%128th
43%104th
pass rate, standard downs
31%126th
38%96th
pass rate, 1st down
30%126th
36%109th
no-huddle share
3%135th
78%48th
pass rate, passing downs
55%114th
57%103rd
pass rate, red zone
17%133rd
35%84th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.06th
29.559th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
IU offence
IU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.421
247
5 of 138
success rate
0.510
247
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
247
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
247
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
247
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
247
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.686
247
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
247
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
247
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
247
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.379
247
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.507
247
19 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
247
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
247
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.241
247
7 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
247
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
247
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.028
247
11 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
247
121 of 138
NEB offence
NEB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.414
281
6 of 138
success rate
0.498
281
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.439
281
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.344
281
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.494
281
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.259
281
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.499
281
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
281
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.658
281
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
281
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
281
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.408
281
28 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
281
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
281
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.192
281
9 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
281
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
281
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
281
32 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
281
87 of 138
IU defence
IU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
237
17 of 138
success rate
0.300
237
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
237
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.134
237
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.264
237
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.164
237
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.035
237
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
237
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
237
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.329
237
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
237
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.262
237
12 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.236
237
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
237
38 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
237
115 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
132 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.030
237
3 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
237
118 of 138
NEB defence
NEB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.366
235
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.241
235
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.002
235
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
235
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
235
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.107
235
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.349
235
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.342
235
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
235
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
235
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.898
235
75 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.182
235
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
235
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.611
235
24 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
235
121 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.136
235
119 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.068
235
90 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
235
96 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs