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Saturday 2026-10-10 15:30 · Spartan Stadium
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
MSU pass rush6.8% 10341st9.8% 22446thfaces ILL3.2% 9431st5.0% ~1.6 sacks
ILL pass rush1.1% 88135th6.5% 200116thfaces MSU10.2% 118130th5.7% ~1.9 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

ILL with the ball

ILL offence vs MSU defenceILL offenceMSU defencerank gap
points added per play0.28428th0.151103rd+75
success rate0.51611th0.42796th+85
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.27351st1.23472nd+21
rush: points added per play0.26120th0.06081st+61
rush: success rate0.51816th0.455110th+94
rush: explosiveness1.02245th0.85442nd-3
pass: points added per play0.32351st0.21290th+39
pass: success rate0.52418th0.37953rd+35
pass: explosiveness1.47590th1.723114th+24
standard downs: success rate0.56415th0.48497th+82
passing downs: success rate0.38524th0.30189th+65
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.45126th2.75958th+32
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.11411th0.260128th+117
short-yardage conversion rate0.667103rd0.63235th-68
points per trip inside the 404.03763rd3.60086th+23
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.11431st0.15152nd+21
havoc allowed by the front seven0.0457th0.09562nd+55
havoc allowed by the secondary0.069109th0.05658th-51
average starting field position (yards from own goal)71.60048th——

MSU with the ball

MSU offence vs ILL defenceMSU offenceILL defencerank gap
points added per play0.033115th0.193120th+5
success rate0.44465th0.445112th+47
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.082130th1.26988th-42
rush: points added per play-0.008117th0.123105th-12
rush: success rate0.41595th0.41480th-15
rush: explosiveness0.848104th1.039103rd-1
pass: points added per play0.15593rd0.279107th+14
pass: success rate0.48341st0.489127th+86
pass: explosiveness1.347121st1.47852nd-69
standard downs: success rate0.50555th0.490102nd+47
passing downs: success rate0.27898th0.329111th+13
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.92397th2.76660th-37
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.204108th0.20783rd-25
short-yardage conversion rate0.71490th0.783103rd+13
points per trip inside the 403.346105th3.864105th0
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.192128th0.13128th-100
havoc allowed by the front seven0.128130th0.06915th-115
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06494th0.06270th-24
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300105th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.