Betting
Spread
OSU favouredMarket OSU −14.5Ours OSU −30
IOWA favouredgap 15.5 toward OSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| OSU away | -14.5 | 30.0 | -625 | 82.7% | 85% |
| IOWA home | +14.5 | 15.5 | +455 | 17.3% | 16% |
| Total | 45.5 | |
OSU -14.5 when first seen, now OSU -14.5 · total 44.5 then, 45.5 now. Over -110 / under -110 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OSU away | -30.0 | 37.8 | 97.1% | -15.5 |
| IOWA home | +30.0 | 7.7 | 2.9% | +15.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OSU away | -10.0 | 27.6 | 75.2% | +4.5 |
| IOWA home | +10.0 | 17.6 | 24.8% | -4.5 |
| Total | 45.3 | | | -0.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | OSU | IOWA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +12.81st | -1.272nd |
| Defence (cards) | +4.33rd | +0.846th |
| Card team rating | +17.01st | -0.465th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +28.82nd | +14.819th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.43rd | +0.817th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +2.23rd | +1.217th |
| Card line | IOWA +30.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 68% | 34% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Julian Sayin OSU94 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.628
Completion72.2%
TD–INT10-1
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game299
Rush yards, median game-7
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.2
Hank Brown IOWA73 ▲4 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.324
Completion68.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game25
Pass yards, median game172
Rush yards, median game6
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| OSU away | 3-1 | 75% | +1.3 | 3-1 | +2.8 |
| IOWA home | 3-1 | 75% | +5.1 | 1-3 | -3.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| OSU | away | gone under 8 straight — next game went over 53.9% of the time (323 cases) |
| OSU | away favourite | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| OSU | away favourite | gone under 7 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| OSU | favourite of 7+ | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| OSU | away division | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| OSU | away division | gone under 7 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| IOWA | all | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| IOWA | day | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| IOWA | home | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| IOWA | underdog | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| IOWA | underdog | gone under 10 straight — next game went over 61.8% of the time (55 cases) |
| IOWA | home underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| IOWA | home underdog | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the over — IOWA has gone under 10 straight as underdog.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Kinnick Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| OSU | B. Jackson RB | questionable Shoulder | Mon, Sep 28 | Jackson is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | K. Parker WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Parker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | L. Bey RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be determined if he will face Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | Z. Grady DL | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Grady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | A. Valerio-Hudson WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Valerio-Hudson has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| IOWA | D. Vonnahme TE | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Vonnahme is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, it is anticipated that he will suit up against the Michigan on Saturday, September 26th. |
| IOWA | K. Moulton RB | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Moulton is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Michigan on Saturday, September 26th. |
| IOWA | L. Phillips Jr. RB | questionable Ankle | Tue, Sep 22 | Phillips Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. |