Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WASH wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
MINN
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
6.5 (52nd, offence 62nd, defence 34th)
Returning production
65% (pass 97%, rush 1000%, receiving 45%)
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MINN
WASH
pass rate, all downs
55%22nd
59%5th
pass rate, standard downs
49%15th
53%6th
pass rate, 1st down
54%8th
53%10th
no-huddle share
18%114th
6%130th
pass rate, passing downs
73%27th
78%9th
pass rate, red zone
66%3rd
43%46th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.219th
28.974th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MINN offence
MINN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.129
266
81 of 138
success rate
0.470
266
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
266
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
266
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
266
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
266
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.479
266
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.355
266
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
266
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
266
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.498
266
134 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.241
266
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
266
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
266
94 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
266
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
266
61 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.600
266
135 of 138
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
MINN defence
MINN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.041
230
72 of 138
success rate
0.370
230
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
230
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.074
230
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
230
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.870
230
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.180
230
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
230
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.543
230
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.420
230
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
230
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.680
230
54 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
230
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
230
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.471
230
127 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.237
230
133 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.172
230
135 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
230
83 of 138
opponent average starting field position
78.800
230
138 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs