Line has moved -1.5 since we first saw it (WASH -10 to WASH -11.5).
Betting
Spread
MINN favouredMarket WASH −11.5Ours WASH −9.7
WASH favouredgap 1.8 toward MINN
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MINN away | +11.5 | 17.0 | +350 | 21.3% | 21% |
| WASH home | -11.5 | 28.5 | -455 | 78.7% | 80% |
| Total | 45.5 | |
WASH -10 when first seen, now WASH -11.5 · total 45.5 then, 45.5 now. Over -112 / under -108 · DraftKings, 2026-09-27 02:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MINN away | +9.5 | 17.9 | 26.0% | -2.0 |
| WASH home | -9.5 | 27.6 | 74.0% | +2.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MINN away | +13.0 | 17.7 | 18.6% | +1.5 |
| WASH home | -13.0 | 30.9 | 81.4% | -1.5 |
| Total | 48.6 | | | +3.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MINN | WASH |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +1.747th | +6.118th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.023rd | +1.529th |
| Card team rating | +3.739th | +7.620th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +6.552nd | +12.129th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.252nd | +0.530th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.452nd | +0.927th |
| Card line | WASH -9.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 65% | 54% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Drake Lindsey MINN82 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.226
Completion66.7%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game234
Rush yards, median game-4
Games this season4
Team throws per game35.2
Demond Williams Jr. WASH88 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.309
Completion69.3%
TD–INT7-3
Pass attempts, median game34
Pass yards, median game259
Rush yards, median game45
Games this season4
Team throws per game35.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MINN away | 3-1 | 75% | +3.3 | 2-2 | +4.3 |
| WASH home | 0-4 | 0% | -15.5 | 2-2 | -7.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Husky Stadium · turf · 38 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 53°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | MINN 7 days · WASH 7 days |
| Travel | MINN 1392 miles, body clock 10:00pm at kickoff, -796 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Christian Moss WASH — out (Coach Jedd Fisch, 2026-09-14)
Starting wide receiver ruled out 2-3 months with lower body injury.
Darius Taylor MINN — questionable (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-19)
Leading rusher missed Akron win; backup TJ Thomas filled in with 122 yards, 1 TD.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MINN | B. Sunderland K | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Sunderland is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play against Michigan State on Saturday. |
| MINN | A. Turner RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Turner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against the Michigan on Saturday. |
| MINN | Z. Bates RB | probable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Bates is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against the Washington on Saturday. |
| MINN | D. Taylor RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Taylor is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to play against Akron Zips on Saturday, September 19th. |
| MINN | B. Stevens WR | questionable Illness | Sat, Sep 12 | Stevens is ailing from illness, and it is uncertain if he will play against Akron Zips on Saturday, September 19th. |
| MINN | R. Estrada RB | out Knee | Mon, Sep 7 | Estrada is out of action due to a knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| WASH | C. Moss WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Moss is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Golden Gophers on Saturday, September 26th. |
| WASH | J. Limar RB | out Upper Body | Mon, Sep 7 | Limar will undergo surgery due to an upper body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| WASH | Q. Carr RB | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 7 | Carr will undergo surgery due to an undisclosed injury, and he is without a definitive timetable for return. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.