Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
ORE
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
21.6 (8th, offence 5th, defence 25th)
Returning production
75% (pass 95%, rush 68%, receiving 64%)
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORE
USC
pass rate, all downs
54%25th
50%57th
pass rate, standard downs
45%42nd
41%80th
no-huddle share
38%91st
82%43rd
pass rate, 1st down
46%45th
38%103rd
pass rate, passing downs
76%15th
78%10th
pass rate, red zone
38%69th
41%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8104th
29.851st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORE offence
ORE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
289
14 of 138
success rate
0.478
289
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
289
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.225
289
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
289
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.001
289
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.414
289
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
289
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.777
289
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
289
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
289
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.360
289
32 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
289
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
289
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.029
289
15 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
289
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
289
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
289
26 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
289
108 of 138
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
ORE defence
ORE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.003
268
49 of 138
success rate
0.373
268
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
268
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.041
268
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
268
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
268
67 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.036
268
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
268
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
268
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.410
268
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.294
268
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.685
268
55 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
268
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
268
67 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
268
60 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.049
268
1 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.108
268
136 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
268
70 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs