Line has moved +0.5 since we first saw it (ORE -3 to ORE -3.5).
Betting
Spread
ORE favouredMarket ORE −3.5Ours USC −9.3
USC favouredgap 12.8 toward USC
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ORE away | -3.5 | 32.0 | -185 | 62.2% | 63% |
| USC home | +3.5 | 28.5 | +154 | 37.8% | 38% |
| Total | 60.5 | |
ORE -3 when first seen, now ORE -3.5 · total 62.5 then, 60.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORE away | +9.5 | 25.6 | 26.0% | +13.0 |
| USC home | -9.5 | 34.9 | 74.0% | -13.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORE away | +2.0 | 30.6 | 44.3% | +5.5 |
| USC home | -2.0 | 32.6 | 55.7% | -5.5 |
| Total | 63.2 | | | +2.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ORE | USC |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +6.020th | +9.66th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.111th | +3.110th |
| Card team rating | +9.016th | +12.77th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +21.68th | +17.813th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.09th | +0.913th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.69th | +1.413th |
| Card line | USC -9.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 75% | 59% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Dylan Raiola ORE82 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.889
Completion83.3%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game18
Pass yards, median game207
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season2
Team throws per game36.2
Jayden Maiava USC93 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.532
Completion70.1%
TD–INT14-2
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game286
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season5
Team throws per game34.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ORE away | 2-2 | 50% | -3.5 | 4-0 | +10.5 |
| USC home | 1-4 | 20% | -8.0 | 4-1 | +7.9 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · grass · 139 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 86°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | ORE 7 days · USC 7 days |
| Travel | ORE 740 miles, body clock 4:30pm at kickoff, -279 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Jeremiah McClellan ORE — out (Coach Dan Lanning, 2026-09-22)
Broke foot during pregame warmups before Portland State, out indefinitely.
Dante Moore ORE — out (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-27)
Carted off field and taken by ambulance during second quarter.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ORE | D. Moore QB | questionable Concussion | Wed, Sep 30 | Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Lott WR | questionable Hand | Sun, Sep 27 | Lott is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | I. Hooks WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hooks is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Johnson TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | D. Gresham WR | questionable Neck | Sun, Sep 27 | Gresham is hampered by a neck injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | S. Price RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Price is nursing due to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | K. Harrison TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Harrison is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. McClellan WR | out Foot | Mon, Sep 21 | McClellan is sidelined due to a foot injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| USC | C. Simms WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Simms is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | M. Bowman TE | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | T. Mosley WR | questionable Knee | Wed, Sep 30 | Mosley is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Washington on Saturday. |
| USC | R. Tezeno WR | questionable Foot | Sun, Sep 27 | Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | S. Huard QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | R. Ison WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | D. Redeaux RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | K. Reddick S | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Reddick is dealing with an undisclsoed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Washington on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USC | K. O'Connor OG | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.