Betting
Spread
ND favouredMarket ND −27.5Ours ND −30.1
PUR favouredgap 2.6 toward ND
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ND away | -27.5 | 42.5 | -4500 | 94.6% | 96% |
| PUR home | +27.5 | 15.0 | +1700 | 5.4% | 5% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
ND -27.5 when first seen, now ND -27.5 · total 57.5 then, 57.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ND away | -30.0 | 43.8 | 97.1% | -2.5 |
| PUR home | +30.0 | 13.7 | 2.9% | +2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ND away | -27.0 | 41.3 | 99.0% | +0.5 |
| PUR home | +27.0 | 14.1 | 1.0% | -0.5 |
| Total | 55.4 | | | -2.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ND | PUR |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.74th | -1.473rd |
| Defence (cards) | +4.52nd | -0.988th |
| Card team rating | +15.22nd | -2.378th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +28.13rd | -6.494th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.52nd | -0.172nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +2.22nd | -0.385th |
| Card line | PUR +30.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 51% | 48% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
CJ Carr ND93 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.595
Completion70.5%
TD–INT9-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game238
Rush yards, median game5
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
Ryan Browne PUR77 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.425
Completion71.3%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game323
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game36.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ND away | 3-1 | 75% | +3.6 | 2-2 | -1.8 |
| PUR home | 1-3 | 25% | -5.5 | 4-0 | +17.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Ross-Ade Stadium · grass · 648 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 69°F, wind 5 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | ND 6 days · PUR 6 days |
| Travel | ND 94 miles, body clock 2:00pm at kickoff, -82 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ND | Q. Porter WR | out Knee | Mon, Sep 28 | Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| ND | B. Hebert QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Boilermakers on Friday, September 25th. |
| PUR | G. Burhenn TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Burhenn is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Notre Dame on Saturday. |
| PUR | K. Fox TE | out Knee | Thu, Aug 13 | Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |