Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). IU wins about 94% of the time at a number like ours.
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
IU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
26.9 (4th, offence 5th, defence 7th)
Returning production
17% (pass 2%, rush 25%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NU
IU
pass rate, all downs
45%92nd
38%128th
pass rate, passing downs
47%132nd
55%114th
no-huddle share
11%120th
3%135th
pass rate, standard downs
44%45th
31%126th
pass rate, 1st down
49%23rd
30%126th
pass rate, red zone
48%24th
17%133rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.826th
33.06th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
IU offence
IU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.421
247
5 of 138
success rate
0.510
247
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
247
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
247
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
247
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
247
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.686
247
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
247
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
247
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
247
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.379
247
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.507
247
19 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
247
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
247
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.241
247
7 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
247
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
247
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.028
247
11 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
247
121 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
IU defence
IU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
237
17 of 138
success rate
0.300
237
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
237
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.134
237
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.264
237
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.164
237
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.035
237
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
237
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
237
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.329
237
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
237
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.262
237
12 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.236
237
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
237
38 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
237
115 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
132 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.030
237
3 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
237
118 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs