Line has moved +0.5 since we first saw it (IU -21 to IU -20.5).
Betting
Spread
NU favouredMarket IU −20.5Ours IU −25.4
IU favouredgap 4.9 toward IU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| NU away | +20.5 | 14.5 | +950 | 9.2% | 9% |
| IU home | -20.5 | 35.0 | -1650 | 90.8% | 93% |
| Total | 49.5 | |
IU -21 when first seen, now IU -20.5 · total 49.5 then, 49.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NU away | +25.5 | 12.0 | 5.2% | +5.0 |
| IU home | -25.5 | 37.5 | 94.8% | -5.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NU away | +22.0 | 13.1 | 5.4% | +1.5 |
| IU home | -22.0 | 35.0 | 94.6% | -1.5 |
| Total | 48.0 | | | -1.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | NU | IU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.854th | +9.38th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.368th | +3.64th |
| Card team rating | +0.658th | +12.86th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.350th | +26.94th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.340th | +1.26th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.645th | +1.94th |
| Card line | IU -25.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 89% | 17% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Aidan Chiles NU81 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.518
Completion70.7%
TD–INT6-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game273
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season3
Team throws per game25.0
Josh Hoover IU88 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.756
Completion70.0%
TD–INT11-0
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game216
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game21.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| NU away | 3-0 | 100% | +15.7 | 3-0 | +1.8 |
| IU home | 0-4 | 0% | -6.8 | 2-2 | -5.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · turf · 760 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 62°F, wind 6 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | NU 6 days · IU 6 days |
| Travel | NU 208 miles, body clock 7:00pm at kickoff, +173 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Turbo Richard IU — out (ESPN, 2026-09-26)
Left Friday's game in first half with right lower-leg injury; sources indicate likely avoided serious injury and should return.
Stephen Daley IU — returning (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-24)
Defensive lineman granted preliminary injunction by court; now eligible to play.
Kellan Wyatt IU — returning (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-24)
Defensive lineman granted preliminary injunction by court; now eligible to play.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| NU | J. Fussell CB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| NU | J. McDuffie WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Penn State on Friday. |
| NU | H. Eligon II WR | probable Lower Body | Wed, Sep 30 | Eligon II is managing with a lower body injury , but it is expected to play against the Penn State on Friday. |
| NU | T. McGlinchey TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 29 | McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return. |
| NU | L. Dehnicke TE | questionable Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 29 | Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Friday against the Penn State. |
| NU | B. Turner CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Indiana on Friday. |
| NU | C. Farrell WR | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Hoosiers on Friday. |
| NU | C. Petrucci TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 22 | Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Hoosiers on Friday. |
| IU | L. Beebe Jr. RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Beebe Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will return |
| IU | T. Richard RB | probable Ankle | Wed, Sep 30 | Richard is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play on Saturday against the Rutgers. |
| IU | L. Bond WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bond is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against W. Kentucky on Saturday, September 19th. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.