Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MINN wins about 94% of the time at a number like ours.
AKR
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.1 (132nd, offence 130th, defence 130th)
Returning production
92% (pass 87%, rush 102%, receiving 92%)
MINN
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
6.5 (52nd, offence 62nd, defence 34th)
Returning production
65% (pass 97%, rush 1000%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AKR
MINN
pass rate, all downs
56%21st
55%22nd
pass rate, standard downs
46%35th
49%15th
pass rate, 1st down
50%21st
54%8th
no-huddle share
98%3rd
18%114th
pass rate, passing downs
77%12th
73%27th
pass rate, red zone
48%25th
66%3rd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.181st
31.219th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AKR offence
AKR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.020
262
117 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.981
262
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.099
262
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.513
262
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.709
262
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
262
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.410
262
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.262
262
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
262
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.308
262
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.619
262
12 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
262
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
262
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
262
69 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
262
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
262
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
262
119 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.400
262
4 of 138
MINN offence
MINN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.129
266
81 of 138
success rate
0.470
266
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
266
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
266
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
266
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
266
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.479
266
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.355
266
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
266
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
266
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.498
266
134 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.241
266
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
266
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
266
94 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
266
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
266
61 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.600
266
135 of 138
AKR defence
AKR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
246
129 of 138
success rate
0.431
246
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.372
246
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.045
246
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.436
246
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
246
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.494
246
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.419
246
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.910
246
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
246
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
246
73 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
246
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
246
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.792
246
99 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
246
50 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
246
37 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
246
91 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.400
246
22 of 138
MINN defence
MINN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.041
230
72 of 138
success rate
0.370
230
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
230
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.074
230
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
230
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.870
230
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.180
230
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
230
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.543
230
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.420
230
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
230
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.680
230
54 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
230
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
230
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.471
230
127 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.237
230
133 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.172
230
135 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
230
83 of 138
opponent average starting field position
78.800
230
138 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs