Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 99% of the time at a number like ours.
UL
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.0 (80th, offence 83rd, defence 82nd)
Returning production
92% (pass 101%, rush 82%, receiving 92%)
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UL
USC
pass rate, all downs
39%123rd
50%57th
pass rate, standard downs
33%120th
41%80th
pass rate, 1st down
33%119th
38%103rd
no-huddle share
59%73rd
82%43rd
pass rate, passing downs
53%120th
78%10th
pass rate, red zone
22%126th
41%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.417th
29.851st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UL offence
UL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
273
78 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
273
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
273
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
273
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.123
273
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
273
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.451
273
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.257
273
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
273
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
273
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.059
273
78 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
273
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
273
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.793
273
75 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
273
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.117
273
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.033
273
17 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
273
125 of 138
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
UL defence
UL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
242
3 of 138
success rate
0.397
242
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.984
242
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.305
242
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.418
242
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.504
242
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.127
242
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
242
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.429
242
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
242
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.651
242
53 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.245
242
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
242
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.455
242
126 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
96 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
102 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
242
86 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.200
242
121 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs