Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PSU wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
MRSH
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-12.5 (115th, offence 82nd, defence 134th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 210%, receiving 91%)
PSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 28th, defence 12th)
Returning production
8% (pass 3%, rush -2%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MRSH
PSU
pass rate, all downs
48%69th
43%111th
pass rate, standard downs
38%100th
35%116th
pass rate, 1st down
35%113th
29%131st
no-huddle share
85%32nd
85%36th
pass rate, passing downs
69%40th
65%57th
pass rate, red zone
43%45th
33%93rd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.560th
27.984th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MRSH offence
MRSH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.088
268
99 of 138
success rate
0.418
268
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.212
268
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.086
268
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.417
268
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
268
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.365
268
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
268
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.647
268
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
268
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
268
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
268
86 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.216
268
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
268
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
268
128 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
268
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
268
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
268
60 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
268
27 of 138
PSU offence
PSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.220
275
55 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.299
275
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
275
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
275
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.929
275
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.391
275
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
275
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.813
275
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
275
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
275
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
275
105 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.136
275
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
275
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.967
275
66 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
275
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
275
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
275
79 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.800
275
126 of 138
MRSH defence
MRSH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.332
269
137 of 138
success rate
0.472
269
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.322
269
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
269
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
269
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.802
269
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.533
269
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
269
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.819
269
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.544
269
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
269
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.276
269
122 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.152
269
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
269
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.174
269
118 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
269
12 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
269
10 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
43 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.700
269
62 of 138
PSU defence
PSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.103
241
19 of 138
success rate
0.315
241
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
241
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
241
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.339
241
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.129
241
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.164
241
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.296
241
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.207
241
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.365
241
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
241
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.529
241
33 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.229
241
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
241
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.636
241
88 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
241
114 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
241
94 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
241
120 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
241
131 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs