Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NEB wins about 98% of the time at a number like ours.
OHIO
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-10.5 (109th, offence 105th, defence 101st)
Returning production
63% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 17%)
NEB
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 20th, defence 22nd)
Returning production
46% (pass 5%, rush 30%, receiving 74%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OHIO
NEB
pass rate, all downs
43%105th
43%104th
pass rate, standard downs
39%93rd
38%96th
pass rate, 1st down
41%84th
36%109th
no-huddle share
89%23rd
78%48th
pass rate, red zone
33%95th
35%84th
pass rate, passing downs
53%118th
57%103rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.437th
29.559th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OHIO offence
OHIO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.223
265
53 of 138
success rate
0.442
265
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.257
265
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.286
265
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
265
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
265
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.104
265
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.396
265
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.555
265
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
265
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
265
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.566
265
14 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.101
265
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.864
265
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
265
51 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
265
63 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
265
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
265
103 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
265
88 of 138
NEB offence
NEB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.414
281
6 of 138
success rate
0.498
281
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.439
281
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.344
281
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.494
281
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.259
281
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.499
281
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
281
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.658
281
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
281
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
281
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.408
281
28 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
281
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
281
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.192
281
9 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
281
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
281
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
281
32 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
281
87 of 138
OHIO defence
OHIO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.276
257
131 of 138
success rate
0.432
257
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.381
257
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
257
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.405
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
257
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.490
257
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
257
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.774
257
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
257
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
257
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.833
257
67 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
257
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
257
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.350
257
138 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
257
63 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
257
93 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
257
33 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
257
60 of 138
NEB defence
NEB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.366
235
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.241
235
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.002
235
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
235
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
235
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.107
235
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.349
235
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.342
235
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
235
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
235
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.898
235
75 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.182
235
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
235
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.611
235
24 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
235
121 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.136
235
119 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.068
235
90 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
235
96 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs