Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ILL wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
UAB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-14.3 (118th, offence 116th, defence 115th)
Returning production
80% (pass 100%, rush 63%, receiving 74%)
ILL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
8.5 (41st, offence 24th, defence 69th)
Returning production
21% (pass 3%, rush 34%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UAB
ILL
pass rate, all downs
41%118th
52%37th
pass rate, standard downs
33%121st
44%46th
pass rate, 1st down
31%123rd
44%58th
no-huddle share
76%52nd
19%112th
pass rate, passing downs
60%86th
75%18th
pass rate, red zone
27%119th
61%4th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.047th
30.531st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UAB offence
UAB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.050
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.185
265
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
265
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.437
265
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.994
265
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.009
265
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
265
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
265
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.380
265
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.137
265
67 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
265
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
265
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.889
265
126 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
265
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.106
265
108 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
265
70 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
265
91 of 138
ILL offence
ILL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
246
28 of 138
success rate
0.516
246
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
246
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.261
246
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
246
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
246
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.323
246
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
246
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
246
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.564
246
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.385
246
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.451
246
26 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.114
246
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
246
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
246
63 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
246
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
246
109 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
246
48 of 138
UAB defence
UAB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
249
73 of 138
success rate
0.450
249
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.044
249
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
249
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
249
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.942
249
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.011
249
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.403
249
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.275
249
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.531
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.430
249
132 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
249
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
249
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.870
249
106 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
249
61 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
249
109 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.036
249
10 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
249
27 of 138
ILL defence
ILL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.193
274
120 of 138
success rate
0.445
274
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.269
274
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
274
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
274
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
274
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.279
274
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
274
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.478
274
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.490
274
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
274
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
274
60 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
274
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
274
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.864
274
105 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
274
28 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.069
274
15 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
274
70 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
274
59 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs