Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIA wins about 99% of the time at a number like ours.
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
MIA
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
25.7 (5th, offence 8th, defence 8th)
Returning production
37% (pass 6%, rush 91%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BC
MIA
pass rate, all downs
46%87th
49%64th
pass rate, standard downs
32%124th
42%65th
pass rate, 1st down
30%125th
43%66th
no-huddle share
51%81st
31%100th
pass rate, passing downs
74%22nd
70%37th
pass rate, red zone
36%80th
40%59th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.146th
29.949th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
MIA offence
MIA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.442
280
2 of 138
success rate
0.571
280
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.278
280
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
280
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
280
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.982
280
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.839
280
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.654
280
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
280
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.630
280
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
280
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.887
280
4 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
280
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
280
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.057
280
14 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.068
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
280
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
280
3 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
280
79 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
MIA defence
MIA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.049
228
31 of 138
success rate
0.325
228
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
228
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.158
228
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.257
228
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.719
228
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
228
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
228
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.303
228
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
228
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.229
228
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.153
228
7 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
228
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
228
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.308
228
15 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
71 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
228
64 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
228
87 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.000
228
129 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs