Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SYR wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
SYR
Games
3
Plays per game
79.3
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-1.2 (74th, offence 97th, defence 51st)
Returning production
35% (pass 83%, rush -19%, receiving 20%)
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SYR
BC
pass rate, all downs
54%27th
46%87th
pass rate, standard downs
44%53rd
32%124th
pass rate, 1st down
49%30th
30%125th
no-huddle share
93%17th
51%81st
pass rate, passing downs
74%20th
74%22nd
pass rate, red zone
47%27th
36%80th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.6108th
30.146th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SYR offence
SYR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.038
238
113 of 138
success rate
0.399
238
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.330
238
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.143
238
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
238
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.996
238
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
238
115 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
238
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.712
238
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
238
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
238
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.851
238
102 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.220
238
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
238
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.538
238
92 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
238
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
238
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
238
40 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
238
119 of 138
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
SYR defence
SYR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.126
183
13 of 138
success rate
0.361
183
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.087
183
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
183
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
183
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
183
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.251
183
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.289
183
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.377
183
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.452
183
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.206
183
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.629
183
49 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.233
183
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
183
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.750
183
31 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.186
183
107 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
183
121 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
183
41 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.900
183
91 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs