Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CAL wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
STAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-8.4 (102nd, offence 98th, defence 98th)
Returning production
21% (pass -1%, rush 135%, receiving 31%)
CAL
Games
4
Plays per game
69.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-3.2 (81st, offence 93rd, defence 69th)
Returning production
58% (pass 89%, rush 0%, receiving 43%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
STAN
CAL
pass rate, all downs
57%12th
57%13th
pass rate, standard downs
48%24th
47%29th
pass rate, 1st down
45%53rd
47%38th
no-huddle share
61%70th
35%95th
pass rate, passing downs
77%13th
78%8th
pass rate, red zone
54%10th
52%15th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4112th
27.987th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
STAN offence
STAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.130
272
80 of 138
success rate
0.393
272
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
272
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
272
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
272
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
272
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
272
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
272
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.602
272
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
272
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
272
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.760
272
115 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
272
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
272
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.261
272
109 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
272
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
272
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.051
272
63 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.600
272
13 of 138
CAL offence
CAL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
278
120 of 138
success rate
0.403
278
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.193
278
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.056
278
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.376
278
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.763
278
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
278
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
278
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.474
278
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
278
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
278
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.819
278
108 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.205
278
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
278
127 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
278
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
278
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
278
120 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
278
22 of 138
STAN defence
STAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.281
288
133 of 138
success rate
0.458
288
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.377
288
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.158
288
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.128
288
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.456
288
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.466
288
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.592
288
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
288
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.383
288
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.222
288
116 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
288
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
288
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.000
288
132 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
288
20 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.080
288
36 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
288
40 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
288
68 of 138
CAL defence
CAL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.014
268
56 of 138
success rate
0.369
268
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.341
268
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.217
268
129 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
268
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.122
268
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.092
268
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.320
268
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.644
268
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
268
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.255
268
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
268
110 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
268
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
268
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.615
268
25 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
268
27 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
268
5 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.067
268
89 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
268
12 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs