Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ND wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
SMU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
13.0 (26th, offence 16th, defence 41st)
Returning production
57% (pass 97%, rush 1%, receiving 37%)
ND
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
28.1 (3rd, offence 4th, defence 2nd)
Returning production
51% (pass 91%, rush 12%, receiving 38%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SMU
ND
pass rate, all downs
53%33rd
45%91st
pass rate, standard downs
43%58th
42%66th
pass rate, 1st down
47%42nd
42%73rd
no-huddle share
48%84th
61%71st
pass rate, passing downs
80%4th
58%98th
pass rate, red zone
41%54th
36%79th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4116th
31.220th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SMU offence
SMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
282
40 of 138
success rate
0.518
282
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
282
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
282
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
282
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.646
282
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.603
282
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
282
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.710
282
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
282
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.405
282
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
282
83 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
282
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.652
282
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.903
282
71 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
282
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
282
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
282
46 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.600
282
112 of 138
ND offence
ND offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.333
258
13 of 138
success rate
0.516
258
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.116
258
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.142
258
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
258
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
258
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.563
258
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.558
258
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
258
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.599
258
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.214
258
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.943
258
93 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.153
258
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.286
258
6 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.101
258
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.035
258
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
258
101 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
258
44 of 138
SMU defence
SMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
255
64 of 138
success rate
0.361
255
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.317
255
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
255
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
255
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.065
255
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.038
255
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.299
255
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.711
255
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.434
255
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
255
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.702
255
56 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
255
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
255
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
255
109 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
255
122 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
255
124 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
255
76 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
255
102 of 138
ND defence
ND defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.119
225
15 of 138
success rate
0.342
225
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.138
225
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.229
225
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.304
225
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.812
225
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
225
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
225
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.378
225
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
225
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
225
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.321
225
16 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
225
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
225
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.625
225
2 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.240
225
135 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
225
134 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
225
99 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
225
76 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs