Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
UNC
Games
3
Plays per game
60.7
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 88th, defence 34th)
Returning production
28% (pass 10%, rush 54%, receiving 33%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNC
UVA
pass rate, all downs
51%46th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
46%36th
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
48%35th
42%82nd
pass rate, red zone
44%41st
37%77th
no-huddle share
16%115th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
62%79th
59%91st
seconds per play (own drives)
30.338th
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNC offence
UNC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.118
182
86 of 138
success rate
0.484
182
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
182
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
182
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.534
182
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.706
182
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.148
182
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
182
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.452
182
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
182
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
182
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.872
182
5 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.125
182
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
182
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
182
65 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
182
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.082
182
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
182
62 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
182
80 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
UNC defence
UNC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.019
206
41 of 138
success rate
0.393
206
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
206
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.058
206
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
206
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.827
206
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
206
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
206
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.242
206
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.471
206
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
206
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
206
88 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.122
206
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
206
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.688
206
29 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
206
40 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
206
65 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
206
28 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
206
38 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs