Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FSU wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
FSU
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
5.7 (53rd, offence 35th, defence 74th)
Returning production
40% (pass 13%, rush 28%, receiving 65%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NCSU
FSU
pass rate, all downs
47%80th
44%102nd
pass rate, standard downs
37%110th
35%113th
pass rate, 1st down
41%86th
35%112th
no-huddle share
44%87th
69%61st
pass rate, passing downs
71%32nd
64%60th
pass rate, red zone
39%66th
35%83rd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.971st
29.069th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
FSU offence
FSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.247
249
41 of 138
success rate
0.434
249
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.526
249
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.224
249
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.442
249
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.131
249
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.367
249
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
249
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.061
249
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
249
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.392
249
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.196
249
60 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
249
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.885
249
18 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
249
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
249
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
249
93 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
249
55 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
FSU defence
FSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.219
276
125 of 138
success rate
0.435
276
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.350
276
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.134
276
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
276
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.959
276
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.325
276
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
276
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.654
276
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
276
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
276
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
276
95 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
276
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
276
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.524
276
80 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
276
58 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
276
75 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
49 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
276
95 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs