Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
CAL
Games
4
Plays per game
69.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-3.2 (81st, offence 93rd, defence 69th)
Returning production
58% (pass 89%, rush 0%, receiving 43%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CAL
UVA
pass rate, all downs
57%13th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
47%29th
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
47%38th
42%82nd
no-huddle share
35%95th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
78%8th
59%91st
pass rate, red zone
52%15th
37%77th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.987th
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CAL offence
CAL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
278
120 of 138
success rate
0.403
278
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.193
278
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.056
278
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.376
278
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.763
278
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
278
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
278
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.474
278
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
278
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
278
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.819
278
108 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.205
278
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
278
127 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
278
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
278
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
278
120 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
278
22 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
CAL defence
CAL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.014
268
56 of 138
success rate
0.369
268
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.341
268
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.217
268
129 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
268
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.122
268
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.092
268
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.320
268
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.644
268
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
268
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.255
268
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
268
110 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
268
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
268
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.615
268
25 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
268
27 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
268
5 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.067
268
89 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
268
12 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs